Expected Value: what this star will be

Expected Value is a star on the Constellate sky: placed by meaning, named, and connected to the stars around it. This is the short form of its post: the line it carries, the area we colour Reasoning, and what stands beside it today.

The line it carries on the sky: Multiply each outcome by its odds; a good decision can still lose.

What stands beside it

The stars nearest to it are Base-Rate Neglect, Bayesian Thinking, Ergodicity and Hindsight Bias, and Base-Rate Neglect, Bayesian Thinking and Loss Aversion are already open to walk. When Expected Value opens, the conversation will land it among them, with a line drawn to each idea it touches.

Ask for this star

Every star is lit by demand. Ask for Expected Value and it moves up the list; when it opens, this post becomes the full essay. The open stars beside it can be walked today, and the first concept of every course is free.